Qualification · Qualification 63

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

440.23 – 147.54

97%3%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

283 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 745.8 ±9.5

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 88.99Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 299.45Rank 1Record 22-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 51.79Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 420.7 ±11

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 24.54Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 133.91Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX -10.91Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 48, 27, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

440.2 pts

~3.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 27, 8728

Auto

54.3 13%

Teleop

242.8 57%

Endgame

131.4 31%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 95%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5811, 3940, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

147.5 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5811, 3940, 620

Auto

20.8 14%

Teleop

76.5 53%

Endgame

47.9 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 95%

Supercharged: 24%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 3.16 · Blue 0.97

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score440.2pts

Blue projected score147.5pts

Red win probability97%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 95%, blue 83%

Supercharged bonusred 24%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 292.7
Score range: 107–481
Upset likelihood: 3%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 468 vs event baseline 225.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

745.8Season APEX420.7

54.3Auto20.8

242.8Teleop76.5

131.4Endgame47.9

29Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	35
teleop	150	112
endgame	101	38
foul	0	0
total	283	185

Result

Final score

283 – 185

Prediction correct · off by 97.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable