Qualification · Qualification 61

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.06 – 154.74

60%40%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

72 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 98.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 601.5 ±10.7

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 81.85Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 53.73Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 52.48Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 35.43Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 53.5Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 65.81Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 1466, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.1 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1629, 1466, 5338

Auto

29.6 17%

Teleop

93.3 53%

Endgame

53.5 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 1262, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1086, 1262, 1533

Auto

35.9 24%

Teleop

88.3 58%

Endgame

28.3 19%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score188.1pts

Blue projected score154.7pts

Red win probability60%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 33.3
Score range: 114–229
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 228.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

601.5Season APEX407.4

29.6Auto35.9

93.3Teleop88.3

53.5Endgame28.3

3Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	12	15
teleop	34	48
endgame	11	11
foul	15	0
total	72	74

Result

Final score

72 – 74

Prediction missed · off by 98.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable