Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

151.7 – 251.75

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

263 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 172.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 508.5 ±9.3

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 41.68Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 46.5Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 63.52Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 517.7 ±10.7

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 27.23Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 190.76Rank 2Record 20-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 33.76Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 1086, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.7 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1629, 1086, 1533

Auto

35.1 24%

Teleop

84.8 57%

Endgame

29.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9121, 1325, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

251.7 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9121, 1325, 5811

Auto

48.9 19%

Teleop

135.9 54%

Endgame

68.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 77%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.35 · Blue 2.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score151.7pts

Blue projected score251.7pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 77%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -100.1
Score range: 110–294
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 230.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

508.5Season APEX517.7

35.1Auto48.9

84.8Teleop135.9

29.1Endgame68

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	7
teleop	139	5
endgame	62	6
foul	15	0
total	263	18

Result

Final score

263 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 172.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable