Qualification · Qualification 59

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

286.03 – 281.03

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

311 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 566.3 ±12.4

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 64.91Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 199.89Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 21.23Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 487.1 ±11

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 52.29Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 130.88Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 97.86Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7515, 10021, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

286 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 7515, 10021, 5811

Auto

78.7 26%

Teleop

159.7 53%

Endgame

61.5 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6239, 3940, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

281 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6239, 3940, 117

Auto

45.8 17%

Teleop

157.7 60%

Endgame

61.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.06 · Blue 1.99

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score286pts

Blue projected score281pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 5
Score range: 240–327
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

High scoring

Combined score 612 vs event baseline 228.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

566.3Season APEX487.1

78.7Auto45.8

159.7Teleop157.7

61.5Endgame61

40Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	84
teleop	154	163
endgame	106	54
foul	0	0
total	311	301

Result

Final score

311 – 301

Prediction correct · off by 22.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable