Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

220.41 – 193.57

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

281 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.3 ±10.5

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX -13.23Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 32.56Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 201.08Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 453.1 ±12.4

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 60.11Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 92.49Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 40.97Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 611, 10021

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.4 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 620, 611, 10021

Auto

27.9 12%

Teleop

141.5 62%

Endgame

59.4 26%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 48, 4265

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8728, 48, 4265

Auto

30.8 16%

Teleop

104.3 55%

Endgame

54.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.08 · Blue 1.92

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score220.4pts

Blue projected score193.6pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 92%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.8
Score range: 153–261
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 402 vs event baseline 227.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.3Season APEX453.1

27.9Auto30.8

141.5Teleop104.3

59.4Endgame54.3

36Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	30
teleop	173	30
endgame	39	61
foul	0	0
total	281	121

Result

Final score

281 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 66.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable