Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

366.14 – 350.95

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

388 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 682.5 ±10.5

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 222.02Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 94.44Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 49.68Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 601.5 ±11.2

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 172.2Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 127.74Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 51.01Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 117, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

366.1 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10021, 117, 8728

Auto

81.8 22%

Teleop

206.8 56%

Endgame

77.5 21%

Strengths

· 10021 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 93%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 195, 3940, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

351 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 195, 3940, 5740

Auto

76.2 22%

Teleop

181.7 53%

Endgame

85.6 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 93%

Supercharged: 21%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.26 · Blue 2.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score366.1pts

Blue projected score351pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 93%, blue 89%

Supercharged bonusred 21%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 15.2
Score range: 309–408
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 683 vs event baseline 230.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

682.5Season APEX601.5

81.8Auto76.2

206.8Teleop181.7

77.5Endgame85.6

47Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	111	40
teleop	202	135
endgame	75	115
foul	0	5
total	388	295

Result

Final score

388 – 295

Prediction correct · off by 38.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable