Qualification · Qualification 44

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

219.91 – 144.19

72%28%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

244 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 665.6 ±11.5

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -17.69Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 131.05Rank 2Record 20-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 106.55Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 447 ±10.5

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 96.71Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 61.27Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX -13.79Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3260, 1325, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

219.9 pts

~2.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3260, 1325, 117

Auto

46.0 20%

Teleop

143.1 63%

Endgame

38.0 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 48, 8728, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

144.2 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 48, 8728, 620

Auto

5.5 4%

Teleop

107.0 72%

Endgame

36.4 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.47 · Blue 1.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score219.9pts

Blue projected score144.2pts

Red win probability72%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 88%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 8%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 75.7
Score range: 103–261
Upset likelihood: 28%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 388 vs event baseline 226.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

665.6Season APEX447

46Auto5.5

143.1Teleop107

38Endgame36.4

62Consistency29

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	16
teleop	165	58
endgame	39	35
foul	0	35
total	244	144

Result

Final score

244 – 144

Prediction correct · off by 12.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable