Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

154.3 – 379.09

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

59 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.4 ±11.7

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 87.93Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 8.63Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 57.74Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 689.1 ±9.5

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 35.03Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 294.28Rank 1Record 22-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 49.78Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 9121, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.3 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1629, 9121, 5740

Auto

34.0 24%

Teleop

55.7 39%

Endgame

53.3 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 611, 27, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

379.1 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 611, 27, 5338

Auto

30.9 8%

Teleop

229.6 62%

Endgame

107.2 29%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 75%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1 · Blue 2.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score154.3pts

Blue projected score379.1pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 75%, blue 87%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -224.8
Score range: 113–420
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 410 vs event baseline 228.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.4Season APEX689.1

34Auto30.9

55.7Teleop229.6

53.3Endgame107.2

38Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	26	14
teleop	23	186
endgame	10	151
foul	0	0
total	59	351

Result

Final score

59 – 351

Prediction correct · off by 61.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable