Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

209.08 – 189.15

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

234 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 581.3 ±12.4

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 25.2Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 30.5Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 153.38Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 540.4 ±12.4

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 30.33Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 23.63Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 135.19Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 5811, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

209.1 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4265, 5811, 195

Auto

55.7 27%

Teleop

88.1 43%

Endgame

63.2 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 88%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 10011, 2539

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 10011, 2539

Auto

61.1 31%

Teleop

109.7 56%

Endgame

25.2 13%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 88%

Supercharged: 15%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.17 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score209.1pts

Blue projected score189.1pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 88%, blue 84%

Supercharged bonusred 15%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 19.9
Score range: 148–250
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 477 vs event baseline 228.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

581.3Season APEX540.4

55.7Auto61.1

88.1Teleop109.7

63.2Endgame25.2

71Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	57	98
teleop	108	89
endgame	69	56
foul	0	0
total	234	243

Result

Final score

234 – 243

Prediction missed · off by 39.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable