Qualification · Qualification 39

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

130.76 – 132.11

50%50%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

136 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 59.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 603 ±11.9

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -26.04Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 52.56Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 104.24Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 448.8 ±9.8

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 25.41Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 99.05Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 7.65Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3260, 5338, 117

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.8 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3260, 5338, 117

Auto

29.6 24%

Teleop

86.5 70%

Endgame

8.1 7%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 1629, 620

/ 100 compat

Projected

132.1 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1086, 1629, 620

Auto

18.4 15%

Teleop

71.3 57%

Endgame

34.9 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.93 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score130.8pts

Blue projected score132.1pts

Red win probability50%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 6%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -1.4
Score range: 89–174
Upset likelihood: 50%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 155 vs event baseline 235.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

603Season APEX448.8

29.6Auto18.4

86.5Teleop71.3

8.1Endgame34.9

74Consistency84

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	17
teleop	92	2
endgame	16	0
foul	0	0
total	136	19

Result

Final score

136 – 19

Prediction missed · off by 59.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable