Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

135.13 – 248.49

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 460.2 ±11.7

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 7.31Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX -7.36Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 135.18Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 550.4 ±11.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 67.97Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 73.09Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 107.43Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10011, 9121, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.1 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10011, 9121, 195

Auto

30.9 21%

Teleop

58.2 40%

Endgame

55.0 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 88%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 1466, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

248.5 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8728, 1466, 346

Auto

51.6 21%

Teleop

133.8 54%

Endgame

63.3 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 88%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.4 · Blue 2.63

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score135.1pts

Blue projected score248.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 88%, blue 85%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -113.4
Score range: 93–290
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 450 vs event baseline 235.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

460.2Season APEX550.4

30.9Auto51.6

58.2Teleop133.8

55Endgame63.3

59Consistency64

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	26
teleop	143	74
endgame	64	75
foul	0	0
total	275	175

Result

Final score

275 – 175

Prediction missed · off by 106.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable