Qualification · Qualification 36

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

445.01 – 220.9

94%6%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

350 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 471.9 ±10.5

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 220.79Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 167.49Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 56.73Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 368 ±13

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 47.36Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 35.77Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 137.77Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 3940, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

445 pts

~2.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10021, 3940, 611

Auto

72.0 16%

Teleop

255.1 56%

Endgame

131.1 29%

Strengths

· 10021 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 90%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 4265, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

220.9 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 4265, 1533

Auto

43.7 21%

Teleop

124.3 59%

Endgame

41.3 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 90%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.92 · Blue 1.04

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score445pts

Blue projected score220.9pts

Red win probability94%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 90%, blue 78%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 224.1
Score range: 180–486
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 230.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

471.9Season APEX368

72Auto43.7

255.1Teleop124.3

131.1Endgame41.3

62Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	68	26
teleop	191	51
endgame	76	32
foul	15	0
total	350	109

Result

Final score

350 – 109

Prediction correct · off by 103.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable