Qualification · Qualification 27

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

138.3 – 97.67

62%38%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

126 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 353.8 ±11.7

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 81.33Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 46.48Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 10.49Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 418.4 ±12.9

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 40.86Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX 8.6Rank 25Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 48.21Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 2614, 9121

/ 100 compat

Projected

138.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1629, 2614, 9121

Auto

35.3 32%

Teleop

57.6 52%

Endgame

18.1 16%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4265, 3492, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

97.7 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4265, 3492, 8728

Auto

38.3 44%

Teleop

8.1 9%

Endgame

41.3 47%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 73%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score138.3pts

Blue projected score97.7pts

Red win probability62%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 73%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 40.6
Score range: 55–181
Upset likelihood: 38%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 248 vs event baseline 237.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

353.8Season APEX418.4

35.3Auto38.3

57.6Teleop8.1

18.1Endgame41.3

108Consistency35

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	36	25
teleop	38	78
endgame	52	19
foul	0	0
total	126	122

Result

Final score

126 – 122

Prediction correct · off by 18.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable