Qualification · Qualification 24

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.96 – 230.77

8%92%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

134 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 422.2 ±12.4

3492Putnam Area Robotics Team (P.A.R.T.s)

Season APEX 185.9Event APEX -0.92Rank 25Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 15.3Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 24.58Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 454.5 ±12.4

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 53.82Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 110.71Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 66.24Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3492, 4265, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

39 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3492, 4265, 1086

Auto

33.3 100%

Teleop

-7.2 0%

Endgame

2.5 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8728, 1629, 7515

/ 100 compat

Projected

230.8 pts

~2.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8728, 1629, 7515

Auto

48.5 20%

Teleop

122.4 51%

Endgame

68.6 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.09 · Blue 2.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score39pts

Blue projected score230.8pts

Red win probability8%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 79%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -191.8
Score range: -4–274
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 237.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

422.2Season APEX454.5

33.3Auto48.5

-7.2Teleop122.4

2.5Endgame68.6

24Consistency110

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	46	51
teleop	55	50
endgame	33	40
foul	0	30
total	134	171

Result

Final score

134 – 171

Prediction correct · off by 77.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable