Qualification · Qualification 21

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

128.71 – 306.29

10%90%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

81 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 38 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 474 ±11.7

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 42.08Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 72.13Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 14.5Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 588.4 ±13

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 136.92Rank 12Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 92

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 144.47Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 24.9Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5338, 6239, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5338, 6239, 5740

Auto

11.0 9%

Teleop

68.4 59%

Endgame

36.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4467, 346, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

306.3 pts

~2.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4467, 346, 2614

Auto

75.8 26%

Teleop

167.3 57%

Endgame

51.8 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.13 · Blue 2.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score128.7pts

Blue projected score306.3pts

Red win probability10%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -177.6
Score range: 87–348
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 233.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

474Season APEX588.4

11Auto75.8

68.4Teleop167.3

36.8Endgame51.8

75Consistency102

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	63
teleop	31	152
endgame	40	63
foul	0	0
total	81	278

Result

Final score

81 – 278

Prediction correct · off by 38 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable