Qualification · Qualification 20

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.93 – 185.55

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

104 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 95.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 352.1 ±13.5

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 34.12Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 79.48Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 81.33Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 665.5 ±10.5

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 81.51Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 115.66Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX -11.62Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4265, 10011, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.9 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 4265, 10011, 1262

Auto

36.8 21%

Teleop

81.3 46%

Endgame

58.1 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 1629, 5811

/ 100 compat

Projected

185.6 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 117, 1629, 5811

Auto

31.8 20%

Teleop

78.4 48%

Endgame

51.8 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.02 · Blue 1.87

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score194.9pts

Blue projected score185.6pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 87%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 9.4
Score range: 144–237
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 390 vs event baseline 235.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

352.1Season APEX665.5

36.8Auto31.8

81.3Teleop78.4

58.1Endgame51.8

27Consistency181

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	66
teleop	45	144
endgame	20	76
foul	0	0
total	104	286

Result

Final score

104 – 286

Prediction missed · off by 95.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable