Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

211.75 – 184.15

59%41%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

225 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 268.8 ±11.1

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 70.21Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 88.88Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 52.66Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 669.5 ±9.9

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 124.51Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 31.94Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 27.7Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6239, 1533, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

211.7 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 6239, 1533, 611

Auto

30.9 16%

Teleop

126.0 66%

Endgame

35.4 18%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 346, 5338, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 346, 5338, 8728

Auto

34.8 17%

Teleop

126.4 61%

Endgame

47.7 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.05 · Blue 1.88

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score211.7pts

Blue projected score184.2pts

Red win probability59%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 88%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 15%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 27.6
Score range: 143–253
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Combined score 463 vs event baseline 226.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

268.8Season APEX669.5

30.9Auto34.8

126Teleop126.4

35.4Endgame47.7

187Consistency38

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	25
teleop	138	150
endgame	72	63
foul	0	0
total	225	238

Result

Final score

225 – 238

Prediction missed · off by 33.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable