Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.02 – 88.39

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

221 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 336.3 ±12.2

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 30.05Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 1.41Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 140.56Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 262.4 ±13.9

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 36.41Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 81.08Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX -29.1Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2614, 1111, 3940

/ 100 compat

Projected

172 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 1111, 3940

Auto

12.4 8%

Teleop

96.9 60%

Endgame

51.1 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5740, 9121, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

88.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5740, 9121, 3260

Auto

22.7 28%

Teleop

35.3 44%

Endgame

22.7 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 74%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.35 · Blue 1.4

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score172pts

Blue projected score88.4pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 74%, blue 75%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 83.6
Score range: 46–214
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 233.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

336.3Season APEX262.4

12.4Auto22.7

96.9Teleop35.3

51.1Endgame22.7

58Consistency80

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	13
teleop	151	2
endgame	37	0
foul	0	0
total	221	15

Result

Final score

221 – 15

Prediction correct · off by 61.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable