Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

66.66 – 183.11

19%81%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 246.1 ±12.1

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX -15.4Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 73.27Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 8.79Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 575.5 ±11.2

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 56.92Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 98.73Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 27.46Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5811, 9121, 611

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.7 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5811, 9121, 611

Auto

5.6 8%

Teleop

51.0 77%

Endgame

9.4 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1086, 346, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

183.1 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1086, 346, 5740

Auto

31.9 18%

Teleop

99.6 55%

Endgame

48.4 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 6%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.24 · Blue 2.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score66.7pts

Blue projected score183.1pts

Red win probability19%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 82%

Supercharged bonusred 6%, blue 14%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -116.5
Score range: 28–222
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 391 vs event baseline 216.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

246.1Season APEX575.5

5.6Auto31.9

51Teleop99.6

9.4Endgame48.4

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	51	45
teleop	92	122
endgame	22	59
foul	0	0
total	165	226

Result

Final score

165 – 226

Prediction correct · off by 70.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable