Qualification · Qualification 119

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

96.58 – 140.26

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

123 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 387.2 ±13.4

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 32.26Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 48.17Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 16.15Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 436.2 ±12.4

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 61.52Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4265Secret City Wildbots

Season APEX 103.4Event APEX 67.87Rank 17Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 92

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 10.87Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5811, 8728, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5811, 8728, 3260

Auto

29.8 32%

Teleop

45.8 50%

Endgame

16.2 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5338, 4265, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

140.3 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5338, 4265, 1111

Auto

19.8 14%

Teleop

77.0 56%

Endgame

40.1 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 12%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 2.15

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score96.6pts

Blue projected score140.3pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 12%, blue 10%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -43.7
Score range: 55–182
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 231.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

387.2Season APEX436.2

29.8Auto19.8

45.8Teleop77

16.2Endgame40.1

2Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	38
teleop	55	100
endgame	33	40
foul	5	0
total	123	178

Result

Final score

123 – 178

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable