Qualification · Qualification 118

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

172.86 – 92.83

73%27%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

189 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 100.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.4 ±12.2

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 126.8Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9121Mavericks

Season APEX 27.6Event APEX 25.68Rank 24Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 20.38Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 306.1 ±12.2

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 33.56Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 20.92Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 38.35Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3940, 9121, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

172.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3940, 9121, 1466

Auto

31.4 19%

Teleop

85.5 52%

Endgame

48.4 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10011, 611, 1086

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10011, 611, 1086

Auto

30.3 32%

Teleop

36.1 38%

Endgame

27.9 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 11%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score172.9pts

Blue projected score92.8pts

Red win probability73%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 83%

Supercharged bonusred 11%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 80
Score range: 51–215
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 466 vs event baseline 231.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.4Season APEX306.1

31.4Auto30.3

85.5Teleop36.1

48.4Endgame27.9

0Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	13	42
teleop	91	161
endgame	85	69
foul	0	5
total	189	277

Result

Final score

189 – 277

Prediction missed · off by 100.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable