Qualification · Qualification 113

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

195.61 – 213.81

44%56%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

249 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 47.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 556.7 ±9.3

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 41.77Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 89.71Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 64.13Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 475.5 ±11.7

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 165.03Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 24.25Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 24.53Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1629, 48, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

195.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1629, 48, 1262

Auto

35.7 19%

Teleop

103.5 55%

Endgame

47.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 611, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 611, 1466

Auto

51.4 24%

Teleop

111.1 53%

Endgame

47.3 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 9%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.83 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score195.6pts

Blue projected score213.8pts

Red win probability44%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 83%

Supercharged bonusred 9%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -18.2
Score range: 155–255
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 421 vs event baseline 228.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

556.7Season APEX475.5

35.7Auto51.4

103.5Teleop111.1

47.7Endgame47.3

14Consistency20

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	26
teleop	124	71
endgame	81	75
foul	20	0
total	249	172

Result

Final score

249 – 172

Prediction missed · off by 47.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable