Qualification · Qualification 112

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

150.78 – 222.7

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

264 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 519.6 ±9.8

620Warbots

Season APEX 97.3Event APEX 5.5Rank 27Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 36.41Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 108.87Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 569.4 ±13.5

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 101.33Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4467Titanium Titans

Season APEX 191.4Event APEX 93.38Rank 12Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 92

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 27.99Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 620, 1086, 346

/ 100 compat

Projected

150.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 620, 1086, 346

Auto

30.8 20%

Teleop

90.9 58%

Endgame

36.2 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 4467, 2614

/ 100 compat

Projected

222.7 pts

~2.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 117, 4467, 2614

Auto

57.3 26%

Teleop

120.9 56%

Endgame

38.7 18%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 82%

Supercharged: 7%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.49 · Blue 2.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score150.8pts

Blue projected score222.7pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 82%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 7%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -71.9
Score range: 110–264
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 473 vs event baseline 228.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

519.6Season APEX569.4

30.8Auto57.3

90.9Teleop120.9

36.2Endgame38.7

11Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	38	53
teleop	127	130
endgame	84	21
foul	15	5
total	264	209

Result

Final score

264 – 209

Prediction missed · off by 63.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable