Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

139.93 – 265.64

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

163 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 306.5 ±12.7

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 68.19Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 27.16Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 44.58Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.4 ±13.7

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 8.64Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 130.31Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

1533Triple Strange

Season APEX 157Event APEX 126.69Rank 14Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8728, 2614, 6239

/ 100 compat

Projected

139.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8728, 2614, 6239

Auto

33.7 29%

Teleop

82.7 70%

Endgame

1.7 1%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3260, 7515, 1533

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.6 pts

~2.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3260, 7515, 1533

Auto

40.3 15%

Teleop

157.4 60%

Endgame

66.2 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 78%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.28 · Blue 2.56

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score139.9pts

Blue projected score265.6pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 78%, blue 76%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125.7
Score range: 100–306
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 324 vs event baseline 221.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

306.5Season APEX345.4

33.7Auto40.3

82.7Teleop157.4

1.7Endgame66.2

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	31
teleop	95	80
endgame	25	50
foul	0	0
total	163	161

Result

Final score

163 – 161

Prediction missed · off by 63.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable