Qualification · Qualification 107

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

223.63 – 265.4

37%63%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

234 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 449.1 ±11.9

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 10.5Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 122.16Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 90.97Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 526.7 ±11.2

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 167.83Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 30.61Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 66.96Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3260, 3940, 48

/ 100 compat

Projected

223.6 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3260, 3940, 48

Auto

29.4 13%

Teleop

131.0 60%

Endgame

58.0 27%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 2614, 1262

/ 100 compat

Projected

265.4 pts

~2.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 2614, 1262

Auto

56.3 22%

Teleop

151.4 59%

Endgame

50.7 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 87%

Supercharged: 13%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.76 · Blue 2.21

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score223.6pts

Blue projected score265.4pts

Red win probability37%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 87%, blue 81%

Supercharged bonusred 13%, blue 12%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -41.8
Score range: 183–306
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 459 vs event baseline 226.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

449.1Season APEX526.7

29.4Auto56.3

131Teleop151.4

58Endgame50.7

0Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	69
teleop	144	115
endgame	61	26
foul	0	15
total	234	225

Result

Final score

234 – 225

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable