Qualification · Qualification 104

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

270.77 – 274.49

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

340 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 589.5 ±11.2

346RoboHawks

Season APEX 289.4Event APEX 107.33Rank 10Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3940CyberTooth

Season APEX 146.9Event APEX 119.69Rank 8Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5740Trojanators

Season APEX 153.2Event APEX 43.75Rank 15Record 11-13-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 538.7 ±10.8

2614Mountaineer Area RoboticS (MARS)

Season APEX 107.6Event APEX 26.69Rank 18Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1262the STAGS

Season APEX 117.5Event APEX 63.12Rank 20Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1325Inverse Paradox

A+

Season APEX 313.6Event APEX 184.68Rank 2Record 20-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 346, 3940, 5740

/ 100 compat

Projected

270.8 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 346, 3940, 5740

Auto

54.9 20%

Teleop

141.9 52%

Endgame

74.0 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 86%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2614, 1262, 1325

/ 100 compat

Projected

274.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2614, 1262, 1325

Auto

56.5 21%

Teleop

157.7 58%

Endgame

60.0 22%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 86%

Supercharged: 16%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.03 · Blue 1.98

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score270.8pts

Blue projected score274.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 86%, blue 80%

Supercharged bonusred 16%, blue 13%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.7
Score range: 230–315
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 709 vs event baseline 225.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

589.5Season APEX538.7

54.9Auto56.5

141.9Teleop157.7

74Endgame60

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	16
teleop	189	233
endgame	64	120
foul	0	0
total	340	369

Result

Final score

340 – 369

Prediction correct · off by 81.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable