Qualification · Qualification 103

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.14 – 304.12

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

307 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 56 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 704.5 ±11.4

27Team RUSH

Season APEX 396.1Event APEX 287.19Rank 1Record 22-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5811BONDS

Season APEX 176.5Event APEX 36.72Rank 23Record 9-15-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1466Webb Robotics

Season APEX 131.9Event APEX 35.23Rank 28Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 700.9 ±10.5

117Steel Dragons

Season APEX 270.4Event APEX 97.88Rank 6Record 16-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 165.37Rank 4Record 18-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8728Argonauts

Season APEX 129.1Event APEX 40.87Rank 9Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 27, 5811, 1466

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.1 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 27, 5811, 1466

Auto

60.9 17%

Teleop

193.0 55%

Endgame

97.1 28%

Strengths

· 27 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 117, 195, 8728

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.1 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 117, 195, 8728

Auto

73.1 25%

Teleop

158.4 53%

Endgame

65.5 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 84%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.36 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score359.1pts

Blue projected score304.1pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 84%, blue 93%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 19%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 264–399
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 671 vs event baseline 224.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

704.5Season APEX700.9

60.9Auto73.1

193Teleop158.4

97.1Endgame65.5

0Consistency51

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	100	75
teleop	133	211
endgame	74	78
foul	0	0
total	307	364

Result

Final score

307 – 364

Prediction missed · off by 56 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable