Qualification · Qualification 102

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

288.86 – 218.76

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

293 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 571.4 ±9.9

10021Guerin Catholic Golden Gears

Season APEX 283Event APEX 206.63Rank 3Record 19-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6239The Irrational Engineers

Season APEX 69.8Event APEX 41.71Rank 19Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1629Garrett Coalition (GaCo)

Season APEX 218.6Event APEX 40.52Rank 22Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 425.4 ±11.1

2539Krypton Cougars

A+

Season APEX 301.6Event APEX 173.69Rank 5Record 15-9-0Status establishedConfidence 100

611Saxons

Season APEX 42Event APEX 29.56Rank 16Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1111Power Hawks Robotics

Season APEX 81.8Event APEX 15.51Rank 30Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 10021, 6239, 1629

/ 100 compat

Projected

288.9 pts

~2.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10021, 6239, 1629

Auto

62.0 22%

Teleop

156.2 55%

Endgame

65.3 23%

Strengths

· 10021 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2539, 611, 1111

/ 100 compat

Projected

218.8 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2539, 611, 1111

Auto

47.2 22%

Teleop

120.6 56%

Endgame

48.3 22%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 81%

Supercharged: 17%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.41 · Blue 1.47

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score288.9pts

Blue projected score218.8pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 81%, blue 77%

Supercharged bonusred 17%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.1
Score range: 179–329
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 400 vs event baseline 224.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

571.4Season APEX425.4

62Auto47.2

156.2Teleop120.6

65.3Endgame48.3

21Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	87	9
teleop	149	57
endgame	57	41
foul	0	0
total	293	107

Result

Final score

293 – 107

Prediction correct · off by 57.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable