Qualification · Qualification 101

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

163.18 – 136.44

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 490.7 ±11.9

1086Blue Cheese

Season APEX 132.9Event APEX 38.9Rank 21Record 10-14-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7515Dark Side Robotics

Season APEX 106.8Event APEX 58.94Rank 26Record 8-16-0Status establishedConfidence 91

5338RoboLoCo

Season APEX 251Event APEX 65.34Rank 11Record 13-11-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 433.4 ±13

10011Gridrunners

Season APEX 131.2Event APEX 33.71Rank 13Record 12-12-0Status establishedConfidence 94

48Team E.L.I.T.E.

Season APEX 220.6Event APEX 92.21Rank 7Record 14-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

3260SHARP

Season APEX 81.6Event APEX 10.52Rank 29Record 7-17-0Status establishedConfidence 88

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1086, 7515, 5338

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.2 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1086, 7515, 5338

Auto

38.1 23%

Teleop

87.7 54%

Endgame

37.7 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10011, 48, 3260

/ 100 compat

Projected

136.4 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 10011, 48, 3260

Auto

23.2 17%

Teleop

70.1 52%

Endgame

42.1 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 80%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.81

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score163.2pts

Blue projected score136.4pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample240alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 80%, blue 86%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.7
Score range: 95–204
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 252 vs event baseline 225.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

490.7Season APEX433.4

38.1Auto23.2

87.7Teleop70.1

37.7Endgame42.1

13Consistency9

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	28
teleop	103	75
endgame	0	15
foul	0	10
total	124	128

Result

Final score

124 – 128

Prediction missed · off by 23.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable