Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

86.94 – 23.19

69%31%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

35 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±11.7

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 29.2Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 30.61Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 27.13Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.2

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 26.55Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 1.35Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -4.71Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 178, 8889, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.9 pts

~1.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 178, 8889, 5746

Auto

13.6 17%

Teleop

44.2 55%

Endgame

23.2 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 1099, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

23.2 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2064, 1099, 1991

Auto

4.9 25%

Teleop

3.5 18%

Endgame

10.9 56%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.53 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score86.9pts

Blue projected score23.2pts

Red win probability69%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 63.8
Score range: 0–110
Upset likelihood: 31%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 81 vs event baseline 125.6.

← Previous Next →

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.4Season APEX165.8

13.6Auto4.9

44.2Teleop3.5

23.2Endgame10.9

20Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	10	14
teleop	6	10
endgame	19	7
foul	0	15
total	35	46

Result

Final score

35 – 46

Prediction missed · off by 37.4 pts