Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

127.35 – 200.36

29%71%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

189 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 46 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±11.7

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX -2.26Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 95.89Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 33.72Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 35.95Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 112.86Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 51.55Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2712, 228, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

127.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2712, 228, 173

Auto

12.2 10%

Teleop

69.1 59%

Endgame

35.2 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

200.4 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 8085, 230

Auto

29.6 15%

Teleop

110.6 58%

Endgame

50.8 27%

Strengths

· 8085 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.75 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score127.4pts

Blue projected score200.4pts

Red win probability29%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -73
Score range: 105–222
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 359 vs event baseline 123.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX345.7

12.2Auto29.6

69.1Teleop110.6

35.2Endgame50.8

0Consistency50

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	38
teleop	48	109
endgame	74	18
foul	35	5
total	189	170

Result

Final score

189 – 170

Prediction missed · off by 46 pts