Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

0 – 110.52

20%80%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

0 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9994Off-Season Demo Team 9994

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9993Off-Season Demo Team 9993

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9995Off-Season Demo Team 9995

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 0Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±12.2

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 45.31Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 46.12Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 19.09Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9994, 9993, 9995

/ 100 compat

Projected

0 pts

~0.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9994, 9993, 9995

Auto

0.0 0%

Teleop

0.0 0%

Endgame

0.0 0%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 155, 9193, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 155, 9193, 10133

Auto

33.1 33%

Teleop

44.1 44%

Endgame

23.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.56 · Blue 1.79

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score0pts

Blue projected score110.5pts

Red win probability20%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -110.5
Score range: -24–135
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 133.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

0Season APEX199.8

0Auto33.1

0Teleop44.1

0Endgame23.1

0Consistency25

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	0	0
foul	0	0
total	0	1

Result

Final score

0 – 1

Prediction correct · off by 54.8 pts