Playoff · Playoff Match 4 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

217.91 – 26.72

92%8%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

154 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 41.61Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 119.39Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 56.91Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.2

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 25.74Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 1.86Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -0.88Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3461, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

217.9 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 8085, 230

Auto

24.3 11%

Teleop

127.2 60%

Endgame

60.8 29%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 1099, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

26.7 pts

~0.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2064, 1099, 1991

Auto

7.4 37%

Teleop

-6.0 0%

Endgame

18.8 93%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.07 · Blue 0.35

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score217.9pts

Blue projected score26.7pts

Red win probability92%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 191.2
Score range: 3–242
Upset likelihood: 8%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 181 vs event baseline 134.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.7Season APEX165.8

24.3Auto7.4

127.2Teleop-6

60.8Endgame18.8

66Consistency18

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	41	10
teleop	70	6
endgame	28	6
foul	15	5
total	154	27

Result

Final score

154 – 27

Prediction correct · off by 32.1 pts