Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

188.54 – 72.23

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 129.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±11.7

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 115.05Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 54.7Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 18.79Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 0 ±69.3

9991Off-Season Demo Team 9991

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9990Off-Season Demo Team 9990

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

9992Off-Season Demo Team 9992

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX -Rank -Record -Status preseasonConfidence 0

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 228, 173, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

188.5 pts

~1.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 228, 173, 2712

Auto

19.1 11%

Teleop

105.7 61%

Endgame

47.6 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9991, 9990, 9992

/ 100 compat

Projected

72.2 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9991, 9990, 9992

Auto

21.7 30%

Teleop

36.1 50%

Endgame

14.4 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.79 · Blue 0.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score188.5pts

Blue projected score72.2pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 116.3
Score range: 46–215
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 1 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX0

19.1Auto-

105.7Teleop-

47.6Endgame-

25Consistency-

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	0	0
teleop	0	0
endgame	1	0
foul	0	0
total	1	0

Result

Final score

1 – 0

Prediction correct · off by 129.9 pts