Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

73.77 – 133.23

32%68%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

73 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 35 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 266.4 ±11.7

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 25.9Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 24.85Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 23.02Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.8 ±12.2

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 53.33Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 54.13Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 25.77Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 178, 8889, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

73.8 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 178, 8889, 5746

Auto

8.8 14%

Teleop

49.4 77%

Endgame

5.6 9%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 155, 9193, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.2 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 155, 9193, 10133

Auto

35.7 30%

Teleop

51.5 43%

Endgame

31.6 27%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 11%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.8 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score73.8pts

Blue projected score133.2pts

Red win probability32%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 11%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -59.5
Score range: 49–158
Upset likelihood: 32%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Close match

Playoff

Combined score 137 vs event baseline 137.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

266.4Season APEX199.8

8.8Auto35.7

49.4Teleop51.5

5.6Endgame31.6

26Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	30
teleop	33	26
endgame	23	8
foul	0	0
total	73	64

Result

Final score

73 – 64

Prediction missed · off by 35 pts