Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.79 – 193.71

34%66%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

275 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 163.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 294.7 ±11.7

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 1.31Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 100.77Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 39.71Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 31.16Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 112.35Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 50.2Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2712, 228, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2712, 228, 173

Auto

19.9 15%

Teleop

65.1 50%

Endgame

44.0 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

193.7 pts

~1.6 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 8085, 230

Auto

31.7 18%

Teleop

105.0 59%

Endgame

41.7 23%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 12%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.86 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score141.8pts

Blue projected score193.7pts

Red win probability34%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 12%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -51.9
Score range: 119–217
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 275 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

294.7Season APEX345.7

19.9Auto31.7

65.1Teleop105

44Endgame41.7

0Consistency65

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	36
teleop	124	114
endgame	103	41
foul	15	0
total	275	0

Result

Final score

275 – 0

Prediction missed · off by 163.5 pts