Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.47 – 25.69

88%12%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

216 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 345.7 ±11

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 29.86Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 110.6Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 49.01Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 165.8 ±12.2

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 24.46Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 2.69Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX -1.46Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3461, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

189.5 pts

~2.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 8085, 230

Auto

30.2 17%

Teleop

101.1 57%

Endgame

45.8 26%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2064, 1099, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

25.7 pts

~0.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2064, 1099, 1991

Auto

5.7 30%

Teleop

4.5 23%

Endgame

9.1 47%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 2.01 · Blue 0.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score189.5pts

Blue projected score25.7pts

Red win probability88%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 14%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 163.8
Score range: 3–212
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 255 vs event baseline 129.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

345.7Season APEX165.8

30.2Auto5.7

101.1Teleop4.5

45.8Endgame9.1

64Consistency15

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	17
teleop	125	1
endgame	21	6
foul	30	15
total	216	39

Result

Final score

216 – 39

Prediction correct · off by 19.9 pts