Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

131.11 – 154.35

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

28 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 points

Limited current-season data (7 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183.7 ±12.2

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 67.53Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 52.55Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 11.03Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 148.7 ±13.3

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX 9.68Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 90.43Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 54.24Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2064, 2712, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

131.1 pts

~1.0 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2064, 2712, 1991

Auto

17.2 14%

Teleop

79.1 64%

Endgame

28.0 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1099, 9193, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

154.4 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1099, 9193, 10133

Auto

26.6 18%

Teleop

59.8 40%

Endgame

63.6 42%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 13%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.03 · Blue 1.33

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score131.1pts

Blue projected score154.4pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 13%, blue 15%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.2
Score range: 104–181
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 149.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183.7Season APEX148.7

17.2Auto26.6

79.1Teleop59.8

28Endgame63.6

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	15
teleop	7	8
endgame	10	10
foul	0	10
total	28	43

Result

Final score

28 – 43

Prediction correct · off by 107.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable