Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

151.47 – 81.39

71%29%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

212 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.3 ±11.7

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 68.59Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 57.93Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 24.95Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 251.7 ±12.2

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX -3.59Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 60.28Rank 19Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 24.7Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5746, 8085, 230

/ 100 compat

Projected

151.5 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 5746, 8085, 230

Auto

15.7 10%

Teleop

82.3 55%

Endgame

52.4 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 3461, 11409, 228

/ 100 compat

Projected

81.4 pts

~0.8 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 11409, 228

Auto

14.0 18%

Teleop

29.5 37%

Endgame

35.9 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 23%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.68 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score151.5pts

Blue projected score81.4pts

Red win probability71%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 23%, blue 11%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 5%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 70.1
Score range: 54–178
Upset likelihood: 29%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 293 vs event baseline 150.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.3Season APEX251.7

15.7Auto14

82.3Teleop29.5

52.4Endgame35.9

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	28	4
teleop	135	55
endgame	49	22
foul	0	0
total	212	81

Result

Final score

212 – 81

Prediction correct · off by 30.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable