Qualification · Qualification 6

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

28.91 – 64.29

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

46 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 247.2 ±11

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 23.3Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 4.91Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 0.7Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 166.4 ±41.2

9999Off-Season Demo Team 9999

Unrated

Season APEX 0Event APEX 9.56Rank 20Record 1-4-0Status preseasonConfidence 0

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 49.48Rank 5Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 5.25Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8889, 10133, 1991

/ 100 compat

Projected

28.9 pts

~0.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8889, 10133, 1991

Auto

7.7 37%

Teleop

8.0 38%

Endgame

5.1 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9999, 1071, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

64.3 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 9999, 1071, 2712

Auto

10.3 19%

Teleop

29.2 53%

Endgame

15.3 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 9%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.92 · Blue 1.44

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score28.9pts

Blue projected score64.3pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 9%, blue 17%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.4
Score range: 4–89
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 69 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

247.2Season APEX166.4

7.7Auto10.3

8Teleop29.2

5.1Endgame15.3

26Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	2
teleop	14	15
endgame	16	6
foul	5	0
total	46	23

Result

Final score

46 – 23

Prediction missed · off by 29.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable