Qualification · Qualification 5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

221.96 – 233.92

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

284 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 430.7 ±12.4

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 199.42Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -7.15Rank 19Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 29.69Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 498.2 ±9.8

155The TechnoNuts

Season APEX 94.6Event APEX 33.88Rank 15Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

178The 2nd Law Enforcers

Season APEX 102.2Event APEX 26.02Rank 16Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 174.02Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1796, 11409, 9193

/ 100 compat

Projected

222 pts

~1.2 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1796, 11409, 9193

Auto

48.5 23%

Teleop

124.4 58%

Endgame

40.0 19%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 155, 178, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

233.9 pts

~1.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 155, 178, 195

Auto

58.8 26%

Teleop

122.5 54%

Endgame

47.4 21%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 19%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.18 · Blue 1.32

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score222pts

Blue projected score233.9pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 19%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -12
Score range: 197–259
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 519 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

430.7Season APEX498.2

48.5Auto58.8

124.4Teleop122.5

40Endgame47.4

0Consistency12

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	66
teleop	156	124
endgame	53	45
foul	10	0
total	284	235

Result

Final score

284 – 235

Prediction missed · off by 31.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable