Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

59.17 – 184.18

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

96 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 276.2 ±11.7

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX -7.15Rank 19Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

230Gaelhawks

Season APEX 126.6Event APEX 43.02Rank 7Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 23.3Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 427.9 ±11.7

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 5.25Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 4.91Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 174.02Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 230, 8889

/ 100 compat

Projected

59.2 pts

~0.5 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11409, 230, 8889

Auto

15.0 28%

Teleop

17.3 32%

Endgame

21.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2712, 10133, 195

/ 100 compat

Projected

184.2 pts

~1.9 RP (offseason)

Teams: 2712, 10133, 195

Auto

43.3 24%

Teleop

94.7 52%

Endgame

45.7 25%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 10%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.49 · Blue 1.89

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score59.2pts

Blue projected score184.2pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 10%, blue 18%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -125
Score range: 34–209
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 344 vs event baseline 140.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

276.2Season APEX427.9

15Auto43.3

17.3Teleop94.7

21.2Endgame45.7

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	52
teleop	40	135
endgame	34	56
foul	0	5
total	96	248

Result

Final score

96 – 248

Prediction correct · off by 50.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable