Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

85.15 – 179.29

24%76%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

25 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 194.8 ±12.2

11409Alchemist's Return

Season APEX 47.8Event APEX 25.24Rank 19Record 1-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2064The Panther Project

Season APEX 42Event APEX 23.28Rank 9Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1071Team MAX

Season APEX 105Event APEX 36.63Rank 5Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 258 ±11.7

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 15.28Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 112.22Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9193Short-Circuited Eagles

Season APEX 40.1Event APEX 51.79Rank 8Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11409, 2064, 1071

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.2 pts

~0.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 11409, 2064, 1071

Auto

20.9 29%

Teleop

30.3 42%

Endgame

21.3 29%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8889, 228, 9193

/ 100 compat

Projected

179.3 pts

~1.7 RP (offseason)

Teams: 8889, 228, 9193

Auto

13.6 7%

Teleop

113.0 58%

Endgame

69.3 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 18%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.71 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score85.2pts

Blue projected score179.3pts

Red win probability24%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 18%, blue 10%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -94.1
Score range: 58–206
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 184 vs event baseline 151.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

194.8Season APEX258

20.9Auto13.6

30.3Teleop113

21.3Endgame69.3

0Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	15	17
teleop	6	78
endgame	4	34
foul	0	30
total	25	159

Result

Final score

25 – 159

Prediction correct · off by 40.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable