Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

272.35 – 253.73

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

201 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 71 points

Limited current-season data (11 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 462.1 ±11.2

1099DiscoTechs

Season APEX 43.5Event APEX -38.41Rank 18Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

195CyberKnights

A+

Season APEX 301.4Event APEX 232.84Rank 2Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

173RAGE Robotics ⚙️

Season APEX 117.2Event APEX 77.92Rank 3Record 5-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 312.5 ±11

228GUS

Season APEX 116.1Event APEX 126.14Rank 13Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8085MOJO

Season APEX 131.3Event APEX 104.17Rank 4Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10133Manhattan Monsters

Season APEX 65.1Event APEX 23.42Rank 11Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1099, 195, 173

/ 100 compat

Projected

272.4 pts

~1.4 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1099, 195, 173

Auto

49.8 18%

Teleop

136.9 50%

Endgame

87.7 32%

Strengths

· 195 anchors offense
· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 228, 8085, 10133

/ 100 compat

Projected

253.7 pts

~1.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 228, 8085, 10133

Auto

26.1 10%

Teleop

161.1 65%

Endgame

62.4 25%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 1.37 · Blue 1.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score272.4pts

Blue projected score253.7pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 16%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 18.6
Score range: 226–300
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 384 vs event baseline 157.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

462.1Season APEX312.5

49.8Auto26.1

136.9Teleop161.1

87.7Endgame62.4

79Consistency77

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	52	28
teleop	113	88
endgame	36	52
foul	0	15
total	201	183

Result

Final score

201 – 183

Prediction correct · off by 71 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable