Qualification · Qualification 11

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

51.19 – 304.53

4%96%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

17 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 230.5 ±12.2

3461Operation PEACCE Robotics

Season APEX 87.8Event APEX 10.84Rank 14Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1991The Dragons

Season APEX 80.3Event APEX 3.81Rank 12Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5746Human Error

Season APEX 62.4Event APEX 36.54Rank 10Record 3-3-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 506 ±11.2

1796RoboTigers

Season APEX 342.8Event APEX 238.83Rank 1Record 6-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8889Project W

Season APEX 101.8Event APEX 57.95Rank 6Record 4-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2712Power Surge 4-H Robotics

Season APEX 61.4Event APEX 7.75Rank 17Record 2-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3461, 1991, 5746

/ 100 compat

Projected

51.2 pts

~0.3 RP (offseason)

Teams: 3461, 1991, 5746

Auto

3.2 7%

Teleop

25.4 53%

Endgame

19.4 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1796, 8889, 2712

/ 100 compat

Projected

304.5 pts

~2.1 RP (offseason)

Teams: 1796, 8889, 2712

Auto

53.1 18%

Teleop

169.2 58%

Endgame

68.7 24%

Strengths

· 1796 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 14%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (offseason)Red 0.27 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setOffseason

Red projected score51.2pts

Blue projected score304.5pts

Red win probability4%

Event bonus sample70alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 14%, blue 12%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Offseason events run REBUILT rules with variable local customization.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -253.3
Score range: 21–335
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 146 vs event baseline 165.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

230.5Season APEX506

3.2Auto53.1

25.4Teleop169.2

19.4Endgame68.7

130Consistency60

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	1	13
teleop	13	98
endgame	3	18
foul	0	0
total	17	129

Result

Final score

17 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 104.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

first-unavailable