Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

114.23 – 96.59

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

99 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 23.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 333.5 ±10.5

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 22.68Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 54.93Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 36.62Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±11

2143Team Tobor

Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 28.45Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6223Arsenal of Engineering

Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 51.43Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

537Charger Robotics

Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 16.71Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1091, 4786, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.2 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 4786, 2202

Auto

23.0 21%

Teleop

57.9 53%

Endgame

28.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2143, 6223, 537

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2143, 6223, 537

Auto

9.3 10%

Teleop

53.5 56%

Endgame

32.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 30%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.45 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.2pts

Blue projected score96.6pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 30%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.6
Score range: 74–137
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 228 vs event baseline 125.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

333.5Season APEX205

23Auto9.3

57.9Teleop53.5

28.1Endgame32.4

29Consistency5

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	18
teleop	34	67
endgame	40	44
foul	0	0
total	99	129

Result

Final score

99 – 129

Prediction missed · off by 23.8 pts

Match videos

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