Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

353.88 – 107.28

96%4%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

436 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 613.8 ±9.3

8701GRAFFITI

Season APEX 76.2Event APEX 18.26Rank 32Record 2-10-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1732Hilltopper Robotics

Season APEX 280.4Event APEX 161.9Rank 2Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1306BadgerBOTS

Season APEX 257.2Event APEX 173.72Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.5 ±10.5

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 20.73Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 52.74Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 33.81Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8701, 1732, 1306

/ 100 compat

Projected

353.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 8701, 1732, 1306

Auto

70.1 20%

Teleop

207.2 59%

Endgame

71.4 20%

Strengths

· 1306 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 4786, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

107.3 pts

~0.4 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 4786, 2202

Auto

23.2 23%

Teleop

52.2 52%

Endgame

24.2 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.44 · Blue 0.43

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score353.9pts

Blue projected score107.3pts

Red win probability96%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 246.6
Score range: 85–376
Upset likelihood: 4%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 582 vs event baseline 122.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

613.8Season APEX333.5

70.1Auto23.2

207.2Teleop52.2

71.4Endgame24.2

0Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	94	24
teleop	270	78
endgame	72	44
foul	0	0
total	436	146

Result

Final score

436 – 146

Prediction correct · off by 60.4 pts

Match videos

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