Playoff · Playoff Match 5 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

79.12 – 110.16

40%60%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 297.6 ±10.4

6574Ferradermis

Season APEX 113.2Event APEX 29Rank 13Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9149RoboCats

Season APEX 62.3Event APEX 19.39Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2506Saber Robotics

Season APEX 122.1Event APEX 30.73Rank 16Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±11.2

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 9.81Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 66.21Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 34.14Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6574, 9149, 2506

/ 100 compat

Projected

79.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 6574, 9149, 2506

Auto

11.3 14%

Teleop

37.5 47%

Endgame

30.2 38%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8024, 7915, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 7915, 4021

Auto

20.7 19%

Teleop

60.2 55%

Endgame

29.1 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.3 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score79.1pts

Blue projected score110.2pts

Red win probability40%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -31
Score range: 57–132
Upset likelihood: 40%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 122.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

297.6Season APEX334.2

11.3Auto20.7

37.5Teleop60.2

30.2Endgame29.1

0Consistency49

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	31
teleop	42	94
endgame	38	49
foul	15	0
total	113	174

Result

Final score

113 – 174

Prediction correct · off by 48.9 pts

Match videos

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