Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
209.98 – 103.65
79%21%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
234 – 68
Prediction correct · off by 29.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 524.9 ±9.9
Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 19.8Rank 28Record 3-8-1Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 246.7Event APEX 89.08Rank 3Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 220.9Event APEX 101.1Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205 ±11
Season APEX 59.9Event APEX 30.76Rank 17Record 6-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 94.2Event APEX 53.84Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 50.9Event APEX 19.05Rank 19Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 8531, 930, 1714
80
/ 100 compatProjected
210 pts
~2.1 RP (district)
Teams: 8531, 930, 1714
Auto
34.8 17%
Teleop
122.2 60%
Endgame
47.4 23%
Strengths
- · Elite combined APEX
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 2143, 6223, 537
51
/ 100 compatProjected
103.7 pts
~0.8 RP (district)
Teams: 2143, 6223, 537
Auto
8.9 9%
Teleop
57.3 56%
Endgame
35.5 35%
Strengths
- · Reliable endgame stack
Weaknesses
- · Thin autonomous coverage
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 47%
Supercharged: 2%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 0.78
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score210pts
Blue projected score103.7pts
Red win probability79%
Event bonus sample162alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 47%, blue 32%
Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 106.3
- Score range
- 82–232
- Upset likelihood
- 21%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
524.9Season APEX205
34.8Auto8.9
122.2Teleop57.3
47.4Endgame35.5
12Consistency0
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 42 | 9 |
| teleop | 159 | 26 |
| endgame | 33 | 28 |
| foul | 0 | 5 |
| total | 234 | 68 |
Result
Final score
234 – 68
Prediction correct · off by 29.8 pts
Match videos
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