Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

112.45 – 98.29

54%46%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

112 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.2 ±11.2

8024Robotans

Season APEX 38.7Event APEX 10.88Rank 21Record 5-5-2Status establishedConfidence 97

7915Ripon Robotics

Season APEX 228.5Event APEX 66.97Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4021igKnightion

Season APEX 67Event APEX 34.6Rank 9Record 7-3-2Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.5 ±10.5

1091Oriole Assault

Season APEX 43.3Event APEX 17.82Rank 22Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4786Nicolet FEAR

Season APEX 162.6Event APEX 49.71Rank 7Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2202BEAST Robotics

Season APEX 127.6Event APEX 30.76Rank 18Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8024, 7915, 4021

/ 100 compat

Projected

112.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8024, 7915, 4021

Auto

18.9 17%

Teleop

61.5 55%

Endgame

31.1 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1091, 4786, 2202

/ 100 compat

Projected

98.3 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1091, 4786, 2202

Auto

23.2 24%

Teleop

52.4 55%

Endgame

19.2 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 36%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score112.5pts

Blue projected score98.3pts

Red win probability54%

Event bonus sample162alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 36%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 14.2
Score range: 76–134
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 265 vs event baseline 121.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.2Season APEX333.5

18.9Auto23.2

61.5Teleop52.4

31.1Endgame19.2

39Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	29
teleop	59	56
endgame	21	43
foul	0	25
total	112	153

Result

Final score

112 – 153

Prediction missed · off by 27.6 pts

Match videos

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